由于中国巨大氧化铝产能不断投产，6月份国际氧化铝价格开始下跌，使得电解铝生产企业成本下降。同时，国际电解铝需求依然保持强劲，预计未来电解铝价格将持续在高位振荡，电解铝行业复苏已经进入第二阶段。
氧化铝价格如期下跌
6月份国际氧化铝价格开始下跌，从历史最高点650美元/吨下降到540美元/吨，主要原因是中国在建的巨大氧化铝产能开始投产，导致进口量下降，使得国际氧化铝市场从供不应求转为供应过剩。
我们维持对电解铝行业继续处于复苏并主要分为两个阶段的看法：
1、自2005年四季度开始，由于电解铝价格上涨的幅度开始大于现货氧化铝价格上涨的幅度，电解铝-现货氧化铝价差开始显著扩大。其主要原因是因为电解铝需求强劲，电解铝生产企业的减产，使得电解铝市场供求关系进一步改善，在此背景下，国际投资基金大量入市，伦敦金属交易所铝期货价格升幅巨大。
2、第二阶段将表现为现货氧化铝价格下跌幅度大于或等于电解铝价格跌幅，电解铝-现货氧化铝价差将继续处于历史高位。随着大量国内氧化铝新建产能的逐渐投产，现货氧化铝供应大幅增长，价格将开始不断下跌，而同期电解铝行业在宏观调控下，其产量增长将下降至10%以下，使得电解铝供过于求的状况远小于氧化铝市场，使得现货氧化铝面临更大压力。
我们上调对电解铝价格2006年的预测从19500元/吨至20000元/吨，并维持2007年17500元/吨的预测。同时维持对2006年现货氧化铝价格5300元/吨的预测和下调2007年现货氧化铝价格4500元/吨低至3500元/吨。
06年电解铝价格将高位震荡
在电解铝需求依然强劲的情况下，我们认为电解铝价格2006年将继续保持高位震荡的局面。目前，我们认为电解铝价格正在接近短期底部：
1、全球来看，2005年四季度，在电解铝价格处于2000美元/吨的情况下，高企的能源价格使得欧洲和北美的电解铝厂加大了关闭的可能性。目前，能源价格比当时还要高，因而当电解铝价格接近2000-2200美元/吨的时候，欧洲电解铝厂关闭的可能性将再次加大，而可能的产量减少将对电解铝价格提供较强支持。
2、国内电解铝价格的剧烈波动以及大幅下跌并接近生产成本将减少闲置电解铝产能的启动速度。由于目前国内氧化铝价格仍然维持在5650元/吨，国内电解铝生产成本已达到约20000元/吨，而电解铝价格近期的大幅下跌至20000元附近，将开始闲置电解铝产能的启动速度。
行业集中度提高，讨价还价能力加强
中国电解铝企业总数进一步下降至110家。2005年在氧化铝价格和电费高企的情况下，电解铝企业亏损严重，尤其是5万吨以下的小型电解铝企业。2005年下半年，小型电解铝企业开始逐渐减产和关闭，根据我们的统计共计近20家电解铝厂已经关闭，同时2005年10万吨以上的电解铝厂共计28家(约占总厂家数的28%)，共生产了512万吨电解铝，约占总产量的66%，行业集中度比2004年进一步提高。
电解铝行业集中度的提高将有利于行业自律性的改善，包括未来在行业再次陷入亏损时，电解铝企业联合减产的可能性和执行力。中国电解铝行业再现2005年全行业亏损的可能性已经很小，电解铝行业已处于不断复苏之中。
电解铝闲置产能不会集中释放
我们认为国内目前电解铝总产能约为1050万吨左右，与2005年780万吨产量相比差距约为270万吨，这一数字是市场目前普遍预期的闲置产能。但是根据我们的计算，其实际构成为，目前闲置产能约为100万吨，在建产能为76万吨，未达产约为74万吨。闲置产能低于市场预期的结果将造成电解铝产量增长速度低于20%，产能不会集中释放。
我们认为在电解铝行业处于复苏之中时，闲置产能的启动不可避免，以及考虑到未达产产能的继续达产，2006年的电解铝产量增长速度将与2005年的产量增速18%基本持平，但超过20%的可能不大，即2006年中国电解铝产量将低于940万吨。
另一方面，由于国家对电解铝行业的宏观调控，特别是十一五规划中指出单位GDP的能耗将下降20%，而电解铝属于高耗能行业，因而我们认为中国电解铝产能总量将不会大幅增长，目前主要是消化已有的较大的闲置产能。如果2006年电解铝产量增长较快，2007年电解铝产量增长速度将大幅下降至10%以下。
#p#分页标题#e#
全球来看，高企的能源价格使得欧洲和北美的电解铝厂加大了关闭的可能性，即使中国电解铝厂在行业复苏后，产量增加，全球电解铝产量将依然缓慢增长，全球电解铝市场将处于基本平衡的状态。
电解铝需求依然强劲
全球经济，尤其是欧洲和日本经济继续保持快速增长，工业生产依然处于扩张过程之中，因而电解铝消费速度将继续较强增长。2
基本
文件
流程
错误
SQL
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