有色金属：现货紧张刺激铝价上涨
站 www.jiangtaoyu.com 时间：2009-01-01 10:33 来源：
事项
近期国内市场电解铝现货供应紧张导致电解铝价格短短一个多星期上涨1500元/吨，周一现货价格达到13100元/吨。由于电解铝价格的迅速反弹，铝行业上市公司近期表现抢眼。
主要观点
一、近期国内电解铝现货趋紧主要有以下三点原因：
1、国内需求有所回暖
从近三个月铝板带调研企业月度开工率可以看出，2月份开工率有明显增加（存在一定季节性因素），从铝材产量也可以看出2月份环比同比均有所增加。随着消费逐渐复苏，预计3月份企业的开工率以及铝材产量会继续上升。
2、国内电解铝产量在继续下降
由于整个2月份，国内大部分的电解铝企业都徘徊在盈亏边缘，中国2月电解铝产量86.9万吨，环比下降3%，同比下降13.4%。虽然3月份电解铝企业利润随着价格回升有所增加，但电解铝企业重新启动电解槽需要较长时间，预计3月份产量依旧低靡。
3、SRB和地方政府的收储
我们整理的电解铝收储计划如图表4，其中SRB的第二次收储和广西的收储价格均为12500元/吨，不过广西的收储有一项附加条件，当电解铝价格超过13800元/吨之时，电解铝企业不能享受政府给予的全额贴息补助。
陕西省的收储有望由陕西有色金属集团作为收储方，由于陕西的电解铝月产量约为1.7万吨，4万吨的收储量将消化陕西省三个月的电解铝产量。
二、电解铝进口利润高企，铝进口有望放大，市场可能将其作为炒作题材
以3月23日收盘价格计算，上海铝现货价格为13100元/吨，LME现货价格为1431美元/吨，比值高达9.15，进口成本=（LME铝现货+进口升贴水）*（1+增值税）*汇率+杂费，约为11938元/吨，进口1吨铝现货的纯利润高达1162元。
由于2、3月份进口利润偏高，3、4月份铝进口有望突破（进口约耗时一个月），我们知道每当中国对某种金属进口量大增时，都可能引起LME市场的强烈炒作（譬如中国2月铜进口同比大增99%，导致铜价暴涨）。
三、美元贬值带来的通胀预期
美联储18日宣布，将在今后6月内购进至多3000亿美元长期国债，同时进一步购入7500亿美元抵押贷款相关证券和1000亿美元“两房”债券。由于购买规模巨大，而目前美联储帐上的美元有限，市场预期美联储将会开动印钞机来解决部分资金来源，当日美元录得自1985年单日最大跌幅。
我们不得不说，我们并没有想到通胀预期会来得如此之快，包括我们之前对国储收铜将会使铜价在3000~4000美元区间运行的判断也没有考虑到短期的通胀因素。虽然暂无法确定通胀预期将会如何演变，不过可以肯定的是，当美元贬值引发通胀时，电解铝价格将至少受益于三个驱动因素：1、LME电解铝以美元标价，价格将上涨；2、电解铝作为保值的商品获得资金的青睐；2、通胀时石油价格将暴涨，在大宗金属中能源成本占比最高的电解铝价格必然受益。
四、电解铝价格确定阶段性底部
虽然LME铝库存在高位继续增加，压制了价格的回升，不过我们相信LME库存的继续增加很大程度上是由于隐形库存的继续显性化，投资者已经预期到这种变化，LME继续增库对价格的影响已经越来越小。
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0.268150s
